By Prerna Kapoor, CLHMS | REAL Brokerage | September 28, 2026
I’ve been watching Lone Tree’s numbers for a few months now, and they finally tell a clear story. The median sale price is down 13.3% from a year ago, days on market have crept up to 54, and 41.9% of listings have taken a price cut along the way. If you own a home there, that headline alone is enough to make you nervous.
But the number that actually explains what’s happening isn’t the price. It’s the construction permits two miles down the road. If you want the full picture of the city before you dig into this, my Living in Lone Tree guide covers the basics. And if you’re the one deciding whether to sell into a market like this, start with a real number, not a guess, at how much your home is worth right now.
What the Redfin Numbers Actually Show
Over the three months ending in August 2026, Lone Tree’s median sale price landed at $974,355, down 13.3% from the same window last year, according to Redfin’s Lone Tree housing market data. Price per square foot fell too, to $272, down 7.5% year over year. Homes are taking 54 days to sell on average, about a week longer than this time last year.
Here’s the part people skip past: the sale-to-list ratio is still 97.8%, and 11.4% of homes sold above their asking price. That’s not a market where buyers are stealing homes. It’s a market where the asking price finally has to match reality, and the homes that get it right still move.
Where All the New Supply Is Coming From
Get the Free Colorado Buyer Guide
Prerna's no-fluff buyer playbook, built from real Colorado closings. Straight to your inbox.
No spam, ever. Unsubscribe anytime.
Lone Tree just marked 25 years of RidgeGate development this June, and it isn’t slowing down. Shea Homes’ Lyric at RidgeGate is a 700-acre community planned for roughly 1,900 homes, with a new Douglas County elementary school breaking ground in February in the Lyric neighborhood itself. A King Soopers Marketplace broke ground in April in the Couplet District, and Century Living is bringing 340 luxury rental units to the Village Center this year.
None of that is a knock on the neighborhood. It’s the opposite. RidgeGate keeps adding schools, grocery stores, and rooftops because people keep wanting to live there. But every new home that finishes construction is a new option competing with your resale listing, and that’s the plainest explanation for a 13% price move that has nothing to do with anyone losing confidence in Lone Tree.
Why Some Homes Still Sell Fast, and Others Sit
I’m seeing the same pattern I’ve seen in other Douglas County markets this year: homes priced to the current market move in days, and homes priced to last spring sit for months and then get the price cut anyway. Almost 42% of Lone Tree listings ending up in that second group tells you the overpricing is common, not that the whole market is soft.
Rates are part of this too. Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed average at 7.03% as of September 24, and every quarter point changes what a buyer can afford on a $974,000 home. That math is exactly why I built the pieces on the Fed’s rate moves this year and how Denver’s higher-end market has split in two between houses and condos. Lone Tree’s price band puts it right in the middle of both conversations.
If You’re Selling in Lone Tree Right Now
Price against today’s comps, not last year’s, and definitely not against what a similar home sold for in 2024. With RidgeGate adding new inventory every quarter, waiting six months to “see if the market comes back” usually means competing against even more new construction later, not less. The homes hitting 97.8% of list are the ones priced honestly from day one, not the ones that started high and chased the market down.
If You’re Buying, This Is Worth a Longer Look
More days on market and more price cuts mean more room to negotiate than Lone Tree has offered in a few years, especially on resale homes competing with all that new construction nearby. If you’re weighing a resale purchase against something new in RidgeGate, the payment difference and the wait time are both worth running before you decide. My free buyer’s guide walks through exactly how to do that math.
Quick Answers
Is Lone Tree’s housing market crashing?
No. A 13.3% price pullback tied to new construction supply is a cooling market, not a crash. Homes are still selling near full asking price when they’re priced correctly.
Why is RidgeGate still building if prices are falling?
Builders plan years ahead based on demand for the whole area, not month-to-month price swings. Lyric at RidgeGate alone is a multi-year, 1,900-home build-out that started before this year’s price shift.
Should I wait to sell my Lone Tree home?
Usually not, if the goal is waiting for prices to bounce back. New supply keeps arriving every quarter, so the competition your resale home faces is more likely to grow than shrink.
Prerna Kapoor | REALTOR® | Luxury Home Specialist
REAL Brokerage | 720-949-5450 | info@prernakapoor.com
CLHMS • RENE • PSA • ABR | International Sterling Society Award Winner
Prerna specializes in residential real estate across Parker, Aurora, Lone Tree, Castle Pines,
Highlands Ranch, Cherry Creek, Greenwood Village, and Centennial. She speaks English, Japanese,
and Hindi.
